Hot Core
Posted by JAC on 6/18/2009, 9:09 am
| http://www.maybagyo.com/ 170900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 116.5E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS, SCATTEROMETRY AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE 25-KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK AND POORLY CON- SOLIDATED NATURE OF TD 03W, THE SYSTEM IS STEERING ON LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THIS EXTENSION OF THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CHINA. THIS REORIENTATION WILL ALSO ALLOW INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AIDING IN INTENSIFICATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 170251Z JUN 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 170300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// NNNN    |
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In this thread:
TS Linfa - hanna, 6/18/2009, 8:58 am
- 50-knot winds, eye forming on 85GHz - JAC, 6/19/2009, 11:10 am
- Possible Taipei direct hit - JAC, 6/19/2009, 10:54 am
- Quasi-stationary - JAC, 6/19/2009, 7:08 am
- Fluctuating eye-wall development - JAC, 6/18/2009, 9:12 am
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