MD
Posted by JAC on 6/18/2009, 2:12 pm
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY AND TN...WRN NC INTO THE MTNS OF SC...AND NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461... VALID 181748Z - 181845Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461 CONTINUES. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ERN KY AND TN...WRN NC INTO THE MTNS OF SC...AS WELL AS NRN GA. LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT FORWARD PROPAGATING QLCS IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES INTO ERN KY AND WRN NC...WHERE ONLY MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED. HOWEVER...THE SRN FLANK OF THIS MCS HAS EXPERIENCED A BURST IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DUE TO COLD POOL/GUST FRONT INTERACTION WITH STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J PER KG/. THESE LARGE INSTABILITY VALUES EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH GA...AND ARE COINCIDENT WITH A THERMAL AND MOISTURE AXIS/GRADIENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER LA...BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG /30-40 KT PER AREA VWP DATA/ NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM TN S INTO GA WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM MAINTENANCE AND CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION. IF STORM PROPAGATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN THE DIRECTION OF INSTABILITY AXIS OVER GA...THEN A CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE FAVORED...ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. ..GARNER.. 06/18/2009 |
16
In this thread:
Bowing MCS generates PDS for South KY, East TN, North GA - JAC, 6/18/2009, 1:20 pm
- Re: MD - BobbiStorm, 6/18/2009, 4:08 pm
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.