CaneTalk: Models on a possible GOM System next week

Models on a possible GOM System next week

Posted by JAC on 6/26/2009, 8:02 am

It looks like the wave that is firing convection in the west Carib and has a NHC Yellow-Box will move over the Yucatan this weekend.

It will then move into the GOM for possible development.

As usual, the wave started to amplify once it got into the east Carib.

It is currently located along 81W.

An anti-cyclone is close to the convection.

Cu-tops have been close to 60k-ft.

CMC, GFS, & NAM put development in the mid-GOM middle of next week.

329

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Models on a possible GOM System next week - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:02 am

Anti-cyclone reformed to the SE, Circulation at top of Boundary Layer - JAC, 6/27/2009, 1:52 am
GFDL & HWRF - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:04 pm
- Expect a deeper TC if this tracks further north toward the Panhandle - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:15 pm
  - HWRF (120mph) - Target, 6/26/2009, 10:13 pm
    - Re: HWRF (120mph) - Anung Mwka, 6/27/2009, 10:13 am
    - Yikes! - JAC, 6/27/2009, 1:29 am
    - Re: HWRF - Chris_in_Tampa, 6/26/2009, 10:45 pm
      - Here's intensity guidance - JAC, 6/27/2009, 1:38 am
        Quite the model spread - skip_wiley, 6/27/2009, 10:10 am
      - Re: HWRF - Target, 6/26/2009, 11:06 pm
UL Winds pushing convection SE of LLC - JAC, 6/26/2009, 6:02 pm
- MIMIC-TPW - JAC, 6/26/2009, 7:52 pm
  - LI's down to -12 over the Yucatan - JAC, 6/26/2009, 9:54 pm
Re: Models on a possible GOM System next week - Hurricane Ranger, 6/26/2009, 5:03 pm
Re: Models on a possible GOM System next week - rbc, 6/26/2009, 4:34 pm
LLC Analysis just in - looks good - closed off - JAC, 6/26/2009, 3:15 pm
- Huge jump in SOI, EPAC system winding down - Mike_Doran, 6/26/2009, 3:48 pm
  - Re: Huge jump in SOI, EPAC system winding down - CX, 6/26/2009, 3:53 pm
    - Re: Huge jump in SOI, EPAC system winding down - JAC, 6/26/2009, 4:09 pm
Re: Models on a possible GOM System next week - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 2:53 pm
- Re: Models on a possible GOM System next week - JAC, 6/26/2009, 2:59 pm
Kicked up a notch - ORANGE BOX - JAC, 6/26/2009, 1:56 pm
- Cirrus canopy at 55K-ft - JAC, 6/26/2009, 2:01 pm
  - Re: Cirrus canopy at 55K-ft - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 2:08 pm
    - Re: Cirrus canopy at 55K-ft - JAC, 6/26/2009, 2:16 pm
      - Watch for a white bulls-eye on Funktop - JAC, 6/26/2009, 2:27 pm
        dvorak - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 2:50 pm
        Re: dvorak LINK sorry - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 2:50 pm
Early Guidance is cutting it close - JAC, 6/26/2009, 12:37 pm
- 12Z GFS takes it through the channel - JAC, 6/26/2009, 1:14 pm
  - am i right on the gfs? - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 2:12 pm
    - Re: am i right on the gfs? - JAC, 6/26/2009, 2:18 pm
- Seeing vorticity at 500mb for the ULL and 93L - JAC, 6/26/2009, 12:51 pm
Loop-current warmer than usual for this time of year - JAC, 6/26/2009, 10:44 am
ULL to the NW at 20N 89W - JAC, 6/26/2009, 10:00 am
- Re: ULL to the NW at 20N 89W - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 10:42 am
- Re: ULL to the NW at 20N 89W - sandy, 6/26/2009, 10:42 am
- Re: ULL to the NW at 20N 89W - sandy, 6/26/2009, 10:35 am
- QSCAT - JAC, 6/26/2009, 10:27 am
93L - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:38 am
- Winds shifting around - JAC, 6/26/2009, 1:06 pm
- Well stacked - JAC, 6/26/2009, 12:58 pm
- Great Warm-Core Inversion with Anti-Cyclone Overhead - JAC, 6/26/2009, 11:07 am
  - Re: Great Warm-Core Inversion with Anti-Cyclone Overhead - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 11:43 am
    - Re: Great Warm-Core Inversion with Anti-Cyclone Overhead - JAC, 6/26/2009, 12:15 pm
      - from my 'nerdy NASA" emails - 93L - CypressTX, 6/26/2009, 2:53 pm
      - Here's the Refs - JAC, 6/26/2009, 12:32 pm
- SCATs - JAC, 6/26/2009, 9:02 am
  - NADA on QSCAT - JAC, 6/26/2009, 9:37 am
- Yucatan Buoy Watch - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:48 am
- Cu-tops at 55K-ft - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:44 am
  - Re: Cu-tops at 55K-ft - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 10:50 am
    - Re: Cu-tops at 55K-ft - JAC, 6/26/2009, 10:56 am
  - Very heavy rain-rate - JAC, 6/26/2009, 9:40 am
  - Big overshooting Cu-Nimb on VIS - JAC, 6/26/2009, 9:18 am
Forecast Air Conditions - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:32 am
- TUTT north of Hispaniola on Thursday - JAC, 6/26/2009, 9:27 am
Don't even think about a landfall target yet - JAC, 6/26/2009, 8:10 am
- Re: Don't even think about a landfall target yet - BobbiStorm, 6/26/2009, 10:54 am

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