Re: Stu's thoughts on the HWRF Tampa-Bay landfall
Posted by
Chris_in_Tampa on 6/30/2009, 5:29 pm
The models have issues with intensity even with developed systems. The HWRF especially makes so many hurricanes and even weak disturbances into powerful hurricanes way too often. Until something has an LLC, these are good only for an idea of what the atmosphere might be like. Intensity is out the window. The path is hard to determine because if the disturbance doesn't develop into a powerful hurricane, then you need to take into account other steering layers. For a weak disturbance, I look at the BAM models more to see if it gets stronger what direction it might trend. But once again, it has to have a center. Even then, a lot of intensity guidance tries to make every disturbance a hurricane. For it not to, there has to be some huge obstacle(s).
I didn't realize the HWRF got that low on what used to be 93L. I knew it was being rather ambitious, but that is just insane. I'm glad the GFDL is still around to at least have some other opinions, even though it can be ambitious too. |
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