2008 NHC Forecast Verification Report
Posted by Target on 7/2/2009, 11:01 pm
2008 NHC Forecast Verification Report
by James L. Franklin
on 2 April 2009

PDF Format: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2008.pdf

HTML Format: http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:yT3veQkGXKMJ:www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2008.pdf+%222008+nhc+forecast+verification+report%22&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us



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National Hurricane Center forecasts and models

GFDL
NWS/Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory model


HWRF
Hurricane Weather and
Research Forecasting Model


GFSO
NWS/Global Forecast
System (formerly Aviation)
Multi-layer global

AEMN
GFS ensemble mean

UKM
United Kingdom Met Office
model, automated tracker
Multi-layer global

EGRR
United Kingdom Met Office
model with subjective quality
control applied to the tracker
Multi-layer global

NGPS
Navy Operational Global
Prediction System
Multi-layer global

GFDN
Navy version of GFDL
Multi-layer regional

CMC
Environment Canada global
model
Multi-level global

NAM
NWS/NAM
Multi-level regional

AFW1
Air Force MM5
Multi-layer regional

EMX
ECMWF global model
Multi-layer global

BAMS
Beta and advection model
(shallow layer)

BAMM
Beta and advection model
(medium layer)


BAMD
Beta and advection model
(deep layer)


LBAR
Limited area barotropic
model
Single-layer regional

A98E
NHC98 (Atlantic)

P91E
NHC91 (Pacific)



CLP5
CLIPER5 (Climatology and
Persistence model)


SHF5
SHIFOR5 (Climatology and
Persistence model)


DSF5
DSHIFOR5 (Climatology
and Persistence model)


OCD5
CLP5 (track) and DSF5
(intensity) models merged


SHIP
Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS)


DSHP
SHIPS with inland decay


OFCI
Previous cycle OFCL,
adjusted


GFDI
Previous cycle GFDL,
adjusted


GHMI
Previous cycle GFDL,
adjusted using a variable
intensity offset correction
that is a function of forecast
time. Note that for track,
GHMI and GFDI are
identical.


HWFI
Previous cycle HWRF,
adjusted


GFSI
Previous cycle GFS, adjusted


UKMI
Previous cycle UKM,
adjusted


EGRI
Previous cycle EGRR,
adjusted


NGPI
Previous cycle NGPS,
adjusted


GFNI
Previous cycle GFDN,
adjusted


EMXI
Previous cycle EMX,
adjusted


GUNA
Average of GFDI, EGRI,
NGPI, and GFSI


CGUN
Version of GUNA corrected
for model biases


AEMI
Previous cycle AEMN,
adjusted


FSSE
FSU Super-ensemble


TCON
Average of GHMI, EGRI,
NGPI, GFSI, and HWFI


TCCN
Version of TCON corrected
for model biases


TVCN
Average of at least two of
GFSI EGRI NGPI GHMI
HWFI GFNI EMXI


TVCC
Version of TVCN corrected
for model biases


ICON
Average of DSHP, LGEM,
GHMI, and HWFI


IVCN
Average of at least two of
DSHP LGEM GHMI HWFI GFNI


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EURO model is the best - stormlover, 6/27/2009, 12:00 pm
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