96E becomes TS Dolores
Posted by JAC on 7/15/2009, 12:52 pm
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=EP052009&starting_image=2009EP05_4KMSRBDC_200907150130.jpg BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOLORES... AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DOLORES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...15.0N 115.6W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009 ENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A 0856 UTC TMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WARRANTS AN INCREASE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF DOLORES APPEARS TO BE DUE TO SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER WIND FLOW...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF DOLORES WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DOLORES BEGINS TRAVERSING OVER COOLER WATERS. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT SOONER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THEN THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE TMI PASS WAS ALSO QUITE HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH IS NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 11 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DOLORES REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AND BECOMES INFLUENCED MORE BY THE SHALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.0N 115.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 17.5N 119.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 18.7N 122.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN |
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