Nice analysis from NWS San Juan
Posted by
skip_wiley on 7/28/2009, 10:05 pm
I think this explains a lot for us wanting to know what the heck is up this year...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1051 PM AST MON JUL 27 2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM AST MON JUL 27 2009/
......
IN THE TROPICS...THE ITCZ DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF 10N IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTAINS TWO DISCERNIBLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. AS WE APPROACH A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ACTIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE
RELAXED. CURRENT TJSJ 27/1200Z RAOB...AS WELL AS OTHER PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS...SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PROFILES STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE COLUMN. CONVERSELY...THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/
CONTINUES TO HINT AT SUPPRESSED LIFT AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE FOR AT LEAST TWO MORE WEEKS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. MOREOVER...THE LATEST 24-MONTH RUNNING TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY /ACE/ INDEX FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SHOWS THE LOWEST SUMS IN NEARLY 30 YEARS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WHILE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF...THE OVERALL TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS PRECLUDED
ONE FROM ACTUALLY FORMING AT THIS TIME. |
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Nice analysis from NWS San Juan - skip_wiley, 7/28/2009, 10:05 pm
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