Possible dangerouse weather here today
Posted by
Fred on 7/29/2009, 9:20 am
MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...
MID LVL SHORTWAVE COMPLEX NOW OVER THE TN/LWR OH VLYS SHOULD MOVE NE
TO BE CENTERED OVER NY/PA/MD THIS EVE...AND ME/NB BY 12Z THU.
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE /PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES/ SHOULD
BE FURTHER BOLSTERED AS DEEP SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY ACROSS REGION.
INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE E
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AOA 40 KTS.
MODEST HEATING OF MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER AND APPROACH OF
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTN/EVE STORMS FROM NE NC
AND ERN VA THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION INTO SERN NY AND
SRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH SCTD EMBEDDED STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD
OF WEAK SFC WAVE NOW NEAR KCVG...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD FOCUS
INVOF OF LEE TROUGH E OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE GREATER HEATING WILL
OCCUR.
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SWLY FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS DMGG WINDS AND...ESPECIALLY IN NRN
SECTIONS OF OUTLOOK...POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LVL SRH WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A CONDITIONAL
TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SEASONABLY STRONG 700 MB FLOW. THE SVR THREAT MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT OVER SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO
COOL AND 700 MB SPEED MAX CONTINUES NE ACROSS REGION.
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