TUTT dissipates by Friday
Posted by
JAC on 7/30/2009, 9:02 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 955 PM HST WED JUL 29 2009
.UPDATE... THE GRIDS AND ZONES WERE UPDATED...WITH SHOWERS BEEFED UP FOR LEEWARD COMMUNITIES OF OAHU FOR TONIGHT AND ALL OF THURSDAY...AND THE THE KONA COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS... TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
&&
.DISCUSSION... THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND/S WEATHER IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 2 WEATHER FEATURES. THE FIRST IS A WELL ANCHORED...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. IT IS PROVIDING THE ISLANDS WITH A REFRESHING BREEZE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...ALSO KNOWN AS THE TRADE WINDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LIGHTER TRADES INTO FRIDAY. THE SOURCE OF THE ISLAND/S CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS FROM LOW CLOUDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND CARRIED OVER BY THE TRADE WINDS. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD SOLID OVERCAST FIELD OF STABLE LOW STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ CLOUDS WITH ITS LEADING EDGE LOCATED 800 TO 900 MILES UPWIND OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE FIELD EXTEND ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FIELD OF SC CLOUDS TENDS TO DISPERSE BUT ALSO BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AS IT APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE SECOND PLAYER IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED THIS EVENING NEAR MAUI AND TRAVELING WESTWARD TOWARDS OAHU. THE LOW HAS TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL ABOVE 10000 FEET THUS FAVORING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUCH AS THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES...SUMMITS AND HALEAKALA ON MAUI. DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AT THAT HEIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY.
THE LOW WILL ALSO TEND TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS MOVING BENEATH IT WITH THE TOPS OF THE SHOWERS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15 TO 20 THOUSAND FEET FROM THE TYPICAL 10 OR 12 THOUSAND FEET. HOWEVER...AIR MASS SOUNDINGS FROM AIRCRAFT DEPARTING... ARRIVING AT MAJOR AIRPORTS ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...SHOWS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL MINIMIZE THESE ENHANCED SHOWERS.
AS OF THE PAST HOUR...WEATHER RADAR IS PICKING UP PASSING SHOWERS WITH THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THEM. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO LEEWARD TERRITORY THANKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADE WINDS. WEATHER RADAR IS ALSO DETECTING AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH KONA COAST BETWEEN KAPILO BAY AND MILOLII.
ALL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW STALLING OVER OAHU KAUAI IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ALSO WEAKENS IT WHERE IT BECOMES LESS OR OF NO INFLUENCE ON THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY. IN OTHER WORDS...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI CEASES BY FRIDAY.THE MODELS ARE ALSO ON THE SAME PAGE OF STRONGER TRADES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
|
13
In this thread:
HI needs to watch 97E -
JAC,
7/29/2009, 9:59 pm- TD 06E - JAC, 7/30/2009, 10:10 am
- TUTT dissipates by Friday - JAC, 7/30/2009, 9:02 am
- Kicked up to Orange Box - TD Forming - JAC, 7/30/2009, 7:57 am
- Organizing nicely - JAC, 7/30/2009, 7:40 am
- Core - JAC, 7/30/2009, 6:57 am
- GFDL: Deep Warm Core going just south of HI - JAC, 7/30/2009, 6:53 am
- Strong overshooting cu's - JAC, 7/29/2009, 11:22 pm
- LLC & Steering Winds - JAC, 7/29/2009, 10:21 pm
- Currently strong Anti-cyclone over 97E & strong TUTT over HI - JAC, 7/29/2009, 10:04 pm
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.