Moving into a weaker cap
Posted by
JAC on 8/4/2009, 9:06 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654... VALID 041211Z - 041345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654 CONTINUES. PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 654 FROM SERN IA THROUGH WRN IL THROUGH 14Z. STORMS HAVE APPROACHED THE ERN EDGE OF WW AND ANOTHER WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FARTHER EAST INTO CNTRL IL. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN IA...EXTREME WRN IL THEN SWWD AND WWD THROUGH NRN MO. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP ALONG SRN FLANKS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MOST LIKELY DUE TO A MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL MO. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE ALONG PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SERN IA THROUGH WRN IL. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH CNTRL IL THIS MORNING ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHERE THE 12Z LINCOLN RAOB INDICATES A WEAK CAP...STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. THE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DIAL.. 08/04/2009
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In this thread:
Bowing MCS moving thru Central IL -
JAC,
8/4/2009, 9:04 am- Moving into a weaker cap - JAC, 8/4/2009, 9:06 am
- Skew-T - JAC, 8/4/2009, 9:10 am
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