Honolulu NWS Discussion
Posted by JAC on 8/5/2009, 7:12 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE AUG 4 2009


THE GFS MODEL INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN...WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED UP FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NAM...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE
CONFINED JUST SOUTH OF MOST OF THE ISLANDS. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE
RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THE LOW ALOFT...THE GRID FORECAST CURRENTLY
REFLECTS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING HURRICANE
FELICIA...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALMOST 1900 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
HILO...AND TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...WHICH IS NEARLY 2400 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST ISSUED AT 500 PM HST
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA INDICATES
HURRICANE FELICIA WILL MOVE WEST OF LONGITUDE 140W INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE INDICATES IT WILL NOT PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
ISLAND WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF FELICIA WILL BE AS IT APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. THAT SAID...WE ARE HEADING INTO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...AND
FELICIA SERVES AS A REMINDER TO ALWAYS HAVE A HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
PLAN IN PLACE DURING THE OFFICIAL CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH NOVEMBER 30.

29
In this thread:
FELICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY - JAC, 8/5/2009, 7:07 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.