Check this out from NWS New orleans
Posted by Riggy on 8/10/2009, 11:07 am
LONG TERM...
THE FRONT STALLS EITHER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE
BY THU NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT
THU WILL CUT OFF A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NW GULF BY FRI. THIS
LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOR A FEW DAYS AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX. THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP DOWN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SAME GENERAL
AREA. THEN WE INTRODUCE A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF BY SAT NIGHT OR SUN. THE NORTHERN END OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBDUCT THE UPPER HIGH WHERE THERE WILL BE WEAK SHEAR AND A VERY
HOSPITABLE REGION FOR GROWTH. WE MAY SEE THIS AS SOON AS SUNDAY.
WOULD NORMALLY DISMISS THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION SO FAR OUT BUT THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL INITIALIZING VERY WELL AND SHOW THE MODERATE
TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE WITH A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
ROTATION WELL ABOVE THE SFC ALONG 44W. THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT
EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR
MAYBE THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...NOT THE ONE THAT IS GARNISHING
ALL THE ATTENTION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. TIMING REMAINS SKETCHY AT
BEST BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE PEAK OF
THE SEASON. NOT VERY OFTEN THAT I WILL MAKE ANY MAJOR UPDATES TO
THE EXTENDED BUT HAVE OPTED TO BEGIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVER SO SLIGHTLY. IF THIS CURRENT MODEL TREND
CONTINUES THESE NUMBERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER.

I checked Houston Tx and Tallahesse Fl. NWS offices, neither of those said any thing like this. Think he has a point?
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low pressure near leeward/windward islands looking better orginized - Stormexpert07, 8/10/2009, 8:53 am
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