Re: Knew it was very close
Posted by
Gianmarc on 8/15/2009, 4:03 pm
We'll see how long its somewhat impressive sat. presentation lasts with the ULL edxtravaganza going on our there courtesy of El Nino. To me it looks like hard sledding throughout the basin right now with shear and dry air. SSTs are cooking though so I think what we'll see is storms that take rapid and maximum advantage of even marginally favorable conditions and then get knocked back down wherever shear amps up--I foresee a series of roller coaster storms that oscilate somewhat wildly in intensity until the upper levels calm down. I don't expect much intensity-wise from Ana as a result and I think we may see a Frances-type of system with Bill where he gets cranking early and then gets humbled by shear and/or ULLs down the road. The shear forecast linked below suggests an increasingly unfavorable upper-level environment at 72 hours out.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
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8/15/2009, 3:48 pm Post A Reply
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