Re: Bill on track---WNW per all models
Posted by Cape_Fear_NC on 8/18/2009, 8:10 am
Hi Jac. I studied closely your 500mb GFS vs. the oldest available one at the same time frame and found the forecast 594 heights area east of Bill is near identical.

But there were differences between the two forecasts. The current one has the trough moving a little faster and digging about 100 miles less deep.

Also, the current 500mb forecast map is missing a tiny shortwave that was due north of Bill on the oldest forecast at your time frame.

I believe it's these relatively small changes that have allowed the slightly farther westward move before full recurvature.

If the Atlantic High could hang in there just a bit longer, or if the main trough were to ease by another hundred miles or so in depth - then we could get some really wild surf up and down the coast. (But I'm not even preparing for any sort of landfall.)

Tim
84
In this thread:
Bill coming out of EWRC looking sweet - JAC, 8/18/2009, 6:35 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.