Trough is digging deep --> bowing MCS in SE MO
Posted by JAC on 8/20/2009, 8:01 am





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0218 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2009
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN MO ...FAR N-CNTRL AR AND
  SWRN IL
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720...
 
  VALID 200718Z - 200845Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720
  CONTINUES.
 
  AS OF 0705Z...REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A
  BOWING MCS EXTENDING FROM ST. LOUIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN
  E-CNTRL MO TO FULTON COUNTY INTO N-CNTRL AR.  SYSTEM MOTION WAS EWD
  AT AROUND 40 KT.  WHILE CURRENT ST. LOUIS VWP IS JUST BEGINNING TO
  SAMPLE THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ATTENDANT TO SYSTEM COLD POOL...THE
  CONWAY MO PROFILER IS LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE... FEATURING 40 KT
  BELOW 1 KM AND A 60-65 KT WLY AIRSTREAM BETWEEN 2-3 KM AGL...PERHAPS
  ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING REAR INFLOW JET.
 
  LAPSE RATES HAVE WEAKENED WITHIN AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS OVER THE
  LOWER OH VALLEY.  BUT...SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
  NEWD THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...WHICH WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE
  LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO ONGOING MESOSCALE SYSTEM.  AS
  SUCH...THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
  CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WW AREA.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
  MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DOWNSTREAM WW LATER THIS MORNING.
 
  ..MEAD.. 08/20/2009

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06Z GFS 500MB Major Change - Cape_Fear_NC, 8/20/2009, 6:30 am
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