So, why does an anti-cyclone shift
Posted by JAC on 8/21/2009, 7:43 am


A great mystery.

Anti-cyclone's are at the top of the troposphere and influenced by the effects of what is going on in the next layer above, namely the tropopause.

Dynamics of the tropopause are greatly different than what happens way down near the earth's surface.  
That layer is called the boundary layer and we are all familiar with its dynamics.

The tropopause is influenced by trace gases, one of them being ozone (O3).

Ozone concentrations are dynamic, that is they fluctuate with time.

One factor that changes ozone levels is x-ray flux from the sun.

Here x-rays collide with oxygen molecules (O2) to create O3.

O3 can be heated more than 02 by the suns UV and IR rays and create larger pressures in the tropopause when larger concentrations of O3 exist.

This then pushes the tropopause down toward the earth's surface.

So, this can influence an anti-cyclone and perhaps push it off center from the COC.

This also creates a heights pressure effect and squeezes a warm-core thus weakening it.
Along the same lines this enchances a cold-core and can strengthen it.

This is well understood when tracking severe weather.
CIMSS has had many discussions of the effects of total column ozone on cut-off lows and shortwaves as they tracked thru the CONUS.

So, in regards to Bill, there has been a prolonged high x-ray flux event for the past couple days that IMHO has played a roll in weakening Bill.

If you recall, I mentioned the sudden drop in x-ray flux at the time Bill spun up and had his RI events.

From more and more observations, it seems to me like there is a good correlation of x-rays with warm-core strengthening and weakening.

I know Mike wil want to rebutt and throw in electrical organization.

But, I still can't see the electrical organization model.

There are a lot of chaotic events in the atmosphere that dismisses electrical organization in my mind.  
Water molecules and air molecules are bouncing around too fast.  
If the atmosphere was at about 10K then maybe.

In fact, if you think about it, there is a lot more electrical organization from the power grid with all the high-voltage transmission lines running around.  
Here, these are well defined static E and B fields at relatively high strength.
Have they had an influence on weather?









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5 A.M. (AST) Hurricane Bill Discussion - chucky7777, 8/21/2009, 5:29 am
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