| Thought was worth putting in perspective and note they agree with the NHC. WOCN31 CWHX 201800 HURRICANE BILL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT THURSDAY 20 AUGUST 2009. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT ...HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT ATLANTIC CANADA ON SUNDAY... 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 3.00 PM ADT... HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 N AND LONGITUDE 62.4 W... ABOUT 305 NAUTICAL MILES OR 565 KM NORTH OF ST MAARTEEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 951 MB. BILL IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS... 30 KM/H. 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH THE LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE BILL HAS THE STORM MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT TRACK ERRORS ARE SOMEWHAT LARGE BEYOND DAY THREE ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PATH. DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 20 3.00 PM 23.1N 62.4W 957 105 194 AUG 21 3.00 AM 25.5N 65.0W 952 110 204 AUG 21 3.00 PM 28.2N 66.8W 948 115 213 AUG 22 3.00 AM 31.1N 68.4W 948 115 213 AUG 22 3.00 PM 34.8N 68.9W 950 115 213 AUG 23 3.00 AM 38.8N 67.9W 959 105 194 TRANSITIONING AUG 23 3.00 PM 43.1N 64.7W 971 90 167 TRANSITIONING AUG 24 3.00 AM 46.5N 58.3W 982 75 139 TRANSITIONING AUG 24 3.00 PM 49.3N 49.1W 991 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 25 3.00 AM 52.2N 37.2W 994 55 102 POST-TROPICAL 3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS BILL REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SWELL FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY APPROACHING SWELL HEIGHTS NEAR 2 M WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG SOME BEACHES. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE SHORELINE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 2 TO 3 M (7 TO 10 FEET) ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHERE LARGE WAVES BREAK ONSHORE 4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY GIVEN THE CURRENT CHC TRACK HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MARITIME MARINE AREAS LATER THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE WARNINGS. 5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS A. ANALYSIS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING NHC. B. PROGNOSTIC FOLLOWING NHC ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. BILL IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THEN BECOMES DIVERGENT ON BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE BILL WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION ON THE 23RD AND WILL BE COMPLETED EARLY ON THE 24TH. |