Jimena still 135 knots, recon heading in this morning
Posted by JAC on 9/1/2009, 7:17 am
EP, 13, 2009090106,   , BEST,   0, 198N, 1098W, 135,  931, HU,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep132009.invest









BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA HEADING TOWARD THE BAJA
PENINSULA...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED
THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO...AND ON THE EAST COAST TO
LORETO.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LORETO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY AND PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF LORETO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 345 MILES
...560 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE STATUS.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.2N 110.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA BECAME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AROUND 0500 UTC...HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS WARMED AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER SYMMETRIC CDO.
THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM
SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ALSO CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND
T6.5. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 135 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE JIMENA AROUND 1500 UTC THIS MORNING.  THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...HOWEVER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
SHOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREAFTER...
LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A
FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.  THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT JIMENA
WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LATEST
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD. THE GFS AND
UKMET MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE WHILE THE
GFDL...HWRF AND ECMWF ARE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE. THE SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.  

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE BAJA
PENINSULA AT AN OBLIQUE ANGLE...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT
OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0900Z 20.2N 110.1W   135 KT
12HR VT     01/1800Z 21.6N 110.8W   130 KT
24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 111.6W   120 KT
36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.3W   100 KT
48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.7N 112.7W    75 KT...INLAND
72HR VT     04/0600Z 28.4N 113.1W    50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT     05/0600Z 30.0N 113.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     06/0600Z 31.5N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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Jimena still 135 knots, recon heading in this morning - JAC, 9/1/2009, 7:17 am
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