Tropical storm watches could be required as early as this afternooon
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2009, 2:03 pm
NHC's 2PM EDT ATWO:

"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE
LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE... GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON."

While displaced from convection, there does appear, in my opinion, to be a fairly well developed center. But is it enough? Looks like it to me:



A distinct wind shift. But the higher winds are still very displaced.
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Tropical storm watches could be required as early as this afternooon - Chris in Tampa, 9/1/2009, 2:03 pm
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