Re: Latest GFDL is scary
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/4/2009, 5:48 pm
Not too many sat frames ago I might have said Erika had just about had it. But, at just about exactly 16N 65W I see something still spinning on the 20:15UTC visible image on the "Ex-Erika(AL06)" floater.

She will not be doing anything anytime soon in my opinion in terms of development in the next several days (rain could still be a problem in the islands though), but she has a shot days from now as long as she doesn't open up completely into a wave.

I have long given up on model intensities for weak systems. I think they only work for well developed systems. The GFDL and HWRF seem to want to make everything a powerful hurricane. They only seem to get sane after something has developed. In my opinion, they are good for a laugh for an invest, depression, or ill-defined tropical storm. Not a whole lot more until you have something well defined.
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Latest GFDL is scary - Fred, 9/4/2009, 2:39 pm
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