Anti-Cyclone Overhead
Posted by JAC on 9/13/2009, 9:39 am
 TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN A ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 130530Z HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130410Z AMSU-B PASS SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO JAPAN WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ENABLE TS 15W TO RESUME ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 120, HENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG TYPHOON. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 36, THEN DEVIATES TO THE RIGHT, FAVORING ECMWF AND JGSM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// |
25
In this thread:
WP15 Choi-Wan should ramp up to a super typhoon this week - JAC, 9/12/2009, 9:36 pm
- Typhoon Choi-Wan Triggers Tropical Storm Warnings for U.S. Commonwealth of No. Mariana Islands - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:21 pm
- Forecast Track thru the Marianas - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:33 pm
- Re: Forecast Track thru the Marianas - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:35 pm
- NWS Guam - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:30 pm
- Saipan News - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:24 pm
- Guam Radar - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:23 pm
- Forecast Track thru the Marianas - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:33 pm
- Cat4 on ADT - JAC, 9/14/2009, 2:09 pm
- Quickly Nearing Cat 5 - CX, 9/14/2009, 6:06 pm
- Re: Quickly Nearing Cat 5 - chucky7777, 9/14/2009, 7:03 pm
- AMSRE on Aqua-1 tags it at 120 knts 933 mb - JAC, 9/14/2009, 3:31 pm
- Best Track at 120-knots - JAC, 9/14/2009, 3:34 pm
- Alamagan island looks to be the closest - chucky7777, 9/14/2009, 3:30 pm
- Quickly Nearing Cat 5 - CX, 9/14/2009, 6:06 pm
- Pinhole Eye, Hot Core, Raw T = 6.8 - JAC, 9/14/2009, 7:21 am
- About To Put The Hammer Down - CX, 9/13/2009, 9:15 pm
- Ton of energy to tap into - JAC, 9/13/2009, 10:49 pm
- Hot-Tower firing on the Eye-Wall - JAC, 9/13/2009, 10:39 pm
- RI - JAC, 9/13/2009, 10:28 pm
- Jac... - hanna, 9/13/2009, 11:07 am
- Hanna - JAC, 9/13/2009, 10:29 pm
- Shooting Big Hot-Towers in Outer Bands, Core Heating Up - JAC, 9/13/2009, 9:22 am
- CDO Tightening Up - JAC, 9/13/2009, 9:27 am
- 37GHZ show intensification continuing - JAC, 9/13/2009, 9:29 am
- CDO Tightening Up - JAC, 9/13/2009, 9:27 am
- Very rapid eye-wall development - JAC, 9/12/2009, 9:50 pm
- Re: WP15 Choi-Wan should ramp up to a super typhoon this week - JAC, 9/12/2009, 9:48 pm
- Great core with strong boundary-layer inversion - JAC, 9/12/2009, 9:46 pm
- Textbook dual outflow channels - JAC, 9/12/2009, 9:40 pm
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.