Possible Weekend Severe Weather
Posted by JAC on 9/22/2009, 7:28 am
 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009 VALID 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... DESPITE INITIALLY DISPERSIVE MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS...22/00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA /NAMELY THE ECMWF AND GFS/ REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GRADUAL OPENING AND ERN/NERN PROGRESSION OF CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT STRENGTHENING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CUT-OFF SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF SURFACE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH/LOWER MS VALLEYS ON D4 /FRI SEP 25TH/. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH D5 /SAT SEP 26TH/ ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES AS UPPER SYSTEM OPENS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD. THIS THREAT MAY EVEN EXIST INTO D6 /SUN SEP 27TH/ OVER PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF SURFACE FRONT AND PERTINENT UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES REMAINS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. THUS...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED IN THIS FORECAST. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2009 |
136
In this thread:
- OH/TN-Valley Severe Weather picks up in Fall - JAC, 9/22/2009, 4:04 pm
- IL setup for Friday Night - JAC, 9/22/2009, 8:33 am
- One-Two Punch - JAC, 9/22/2009, 8:25 am
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.