Re: Hurricane activity cycles
Posted by
weatherwindow on 9/28/2009, 9:13 pm
| altho nothing in the tropics can be viewed as absolute, the average length of a warm or cool phase of the atlantic thermohaline cycle, which in turn, determines the north to south variance in ssts, has been about 32 years. however, the data set suffers from the limited number of cycles that have been observed or inferred, ie about 1820 to present. based on rough averages, i believe that the current cycle will extend into the mid 2020's. as jim indicated, our current warm(north atlantic)phase is not the only determinant of atlantic hurricane activity. enso, amo and pdo strongly impact basin activity and, in addition, ssts, altho warmer, show a fair amount of variability withing the warm phase. i like to use the 1940s as a good example of how variable even the heart of a warm phase can be in terms of hurricane activity...take a look at each year in that decade(i suggest unisys)..hope i helped answer your question....rich |
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