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Posted by JAC on 10/2/2009, 8:40 am
  SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG ITS WESTERN FLANK INTERACTED WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. TY 19W REMAINS A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 120 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD, ALBEIT PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER, TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CROSS INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TYPHOON PARMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PLACES THE SYSTEM IN A COL AREA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK WITH GFS AND WBAR STEERING THE VORTEX SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PACK TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS FORECAST GOES WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
Dual Super-Typhoon Duel - Parma & Melor - JAC, 10/1/2009, 10:29 am
- Philippines looks to God as super typhoon looms - JAC, 10/2/2009, 8:33 am
- Super-Typhoon Melor - hanna, 10/1/2009, 8:12 pm
- Super-Typhoon - Parma - hanna, 10/1/2009, 8:06 pm
- Melor's Oscillating Eye - JAC, 10/1/2009, 2:05 pm
- Potential trouble for Taiwan - JAC, 10/1/2009, 1:58 pm
- Japan needs to keep an eye on Melor - JAC, 10/1/2009, 1:56 pm
- Storm-ravaged Philippines braces for 'super typhoon' Parma - JAC, 10/1/2009, 11:35 am
- Warnings Up for Philippines as Parma Powers Up to a Super Typhoon - JAC, 10/1/2009, 10:53 am
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