| TY 0917 (Parma) Issued at 15:45 UTC, 2 October 2009 I hope the Philippine people are ready it looks like the islands are getting witch slapped now; I hope somehow this monster decides to down grade before landfall. Issued at 19:00 UTC, 2 October 2009 Analyses at 02/18 UTC Scale - Intensity Strong Center position N16°25'(16.4°) E123°40'(123.7°) Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt) Central pressure 955hPa Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt) Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt) Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM) Area of 30kt winds or more S440km(240NM) N370km(200NM) http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/ There is a nice satellite here http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?location=CHXX0406&enlarge=true The flood-ravaged Philippines is bracing for what could be a super typhoon (a category 4 or 5 in the U.S.), even as residents of the capital and outlying areas have barely recovered from last weekend's record rainfall that killed at least 293 people in the country. CBS News' Barnaby Lo, reporting from Manila, said Typhoon Parma is forecast to hit the northern tip of the Philippines on Saturday. Lo says the storm is slightly weaker than anticipated, with winds of up to 109 mph and gusts up to 130 mph. But the Weather Bureau warns that even if Parma doesn't make landfall, it will bring rains and strong winds. Although it is not expected to bring as much rain as Tropical Storm Ketsana did, any additional rain could hamper ongoing relief and clean-up efforts, as well as bring greater distress to the more than 3 million people affected by last week's epic flooding. A massive evacuation is underway, with tens of thousands of villagers in mountain slopes, low-lying and coastal areas fleeing the likely path of Parma. There are now more than 80,000 families in evacuation centers. Heavy rain drenched mountainous coastal regions in the northeast as Parma tracked ominously toward the coast. Water has not receded in some areas just outside of the capital. Garbage and debris still litter the streets, and the water levels in rivers, lakes and dams have reached near-record highs, so any more rain is likely to cause more flooding. In Manila, store shelves went empty as people stockpiled food, water and other basic commodities. Government employees were asked to go home early, and evacuation centers keep getting more crammed. Prayers asking that the country be spared another disaster were broadcast on government-run trains. President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo declared the entire nation under a "state of calamity" - effectively releasing contingency funds for local governments and putting a price freeze on all basic commodities, Lo reports. Members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines are also stationed in the most "high risk" areas where they might be needed for immediate rescue efforts. But Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said that those who refuse to evacuate should not expect to be prioritized in case they need to be rescued. National Disaster Coordinating Council chief Gilbert Teodoro said children can be evacuated from Parma's path by force, but adults will be given information to make their own decision. "There is some resistance because they don't want to leave their homes behind for fear of looting," Melchito Castro, the disaster response chief in one threatened district, the Cagayan Valley, told The Associated Press. "If they can't be persuaded, we will be forced to get all the children and minors." In Albay province alone, almost 50,000 people were evacuated Thursday and Friday with the help of the police and military trucks, said Cedric Daep, a top provincial disaster official. Laundry worker Mely Malate fled with her husband and six children to an evacuation centre in Albay, spurred by memories of a storm three years ago. "During the last typhoon, we were trapped inside the house by the flood waters and we had to climb to the roof," she said. "We are scared whenever there is a storm. When we left this morning, the river was already higher than normal." The Philippines is hit by as many as 20 major storms a year and is well practiced at battening down. Typhoons in the region are most common and usually most powerful from August to November. Ketsana wrought a trail of destruction across Southeast Asia. In addition to the 293 killed in the Philippines, 99 were killed in Vietnam, 14 in Cambodia and 16 in Laos. Lake Laguna on the edge of the capital rose by more than 3.3 feet as Ketsana passed and was in danger of spilling over into districts near Manila housing some 100,000 people, said Ed Manda, general manager of the Laguna Lake Development Authority. At a briefing Friday evening, weather bureau administrator Frisco Nilo said a high-pressure system near Hong Kong had caused Parma to slow slightly and might cause it to change direction, though it was still likely to hit the main northern Philippine island of Luzon. The typhoon comes as the Asia region struggles to recover from two major earthquakes, one in the South Pacific that caused a deadly tsunami, and another in Indonesia. © MMIX, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report. |