Mirinae 23W could T-Bone Luzon
Posted by JAC on 10/27/2009, 7:35 am
  WDPN32 PGTW 270300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER ROTA, MARIANA ISLANDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM ROTA SUPPORT THE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OF 35 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THE WINDS AT GUAM AND SAIPAN INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL FAIRLY SMALL. WINDS AT ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE GUAM, SHOW WINDS AT 40 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ARE APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST 3 HOURS AS TS 23W HAS TRACKED OVER ROTA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST REQUIRED FOR TS 23W TO BE MAINTAINED AS THE LLCC ORGANIZES. 3. FORECAST REASONING A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN. B. TS 23W WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT AROUND TAU 48 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STR, TO THE WEST OF TS 23W, WILL BE LIFTING OUT ALLOWING FOR THE STR TO RE-DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF TS 23W AND SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 72. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE WESTWARD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. C. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE SAME PARAMETERS AS DISCUSSED IN PARA 3.B. LANDFALL WITH LUZON IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN TS 23W AS IT CROSSES OVER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, WBAR. WBAR KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, INTO THE STR, WHICH BASED ON MODEL FIELDS IS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO.// NNNN   |
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In this thread:
- Jac sorry missed your post. - hanna, 10/28/2009, 1:09 pm
- Cat1 with nice feeder band - JAC, 10/27/2009, 6:08 pm
- Re: Mirinae 23W could T-Bone Luzon - JAC, 10/27/2009, 2:53 pm
- Got roll and anti-cyclone - JAC, 10/27/2009, 8:42 am
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