97L Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 11/3/2009, 7:51 pm
The disturbance continues to become better organized, as spiral banding features are forming around the periphery of the developing cyclone. Although, there not very strong, its quite common for a developing system to lose convective intensity during the late afternoon and early evening. As the diurnal maximum should bring this back to life by tomorrow morning.
As we speak, a small convection burst has erupted over the center of the circulation. This could be the begining of the formation of a TD much sooner than expected.
The system has all the dynamics to further intensify. Unlike the low that formed a few weeks ago, the main vortex core is over water and under a very favorable upper air pattern. The SST's are warm, shear is light and the pacific monsoon trough is over the SW Caribbean. This will allow a difluent and moist deep layer atmosphere to assist in the deepening of 97L.
Will not get into track, as it's much to early and models need a true center before future tracks can be taken seriously. For now, little movement or maybe a slow NNW motion. |
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