Re: Model mess
Posted by
Target on 11/8/2009, 5:09 pm
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL112009
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/watl.html
Normally I would say that the heat just is not there in the GOM to sustain a hurricane, but I remember that unusual things happen in the late season storms when the colder air interacts with a storm moving to the North.
The west side of the storm seems dry on the water vapor loop but the tpw loop shows moisture all the way into the west side of the GOM.
A rough averaging of the modeled intensities at landfall seem to forecast about 70mph winds just prior to landfall. By the time the exact center hits it may be recorded as a tropical storm strikeing the US. I wonder if the jet stream will be conducive to formation of tornadoes.
There is also the possibility that Ida will have more than one landfall, but that would be hard to forecast now. I thought I saw a model that brought it back in from the Atlantic somewhere.
I'll watch for a diurnal cooling of the cloud tops on the funktop loop but Ida may max out at 100mph. (hi bobbi )
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