First TC of the Southern Hemisphere 2010 Season
Posted by JAC on 11/14/2009, 12:49 pm



TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE DESPITE THE RECENT DIURNAL WEAKENING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO INCLUDE A 140425Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC WITH A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE
EVIDENT. A 140509Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 35-KNOT WINDS AND NUMEROUS
SHIP OBSERVATIONS, NEAR THE LLCC, SHOWED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP
NEAR 1004MB. A 14/01Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
WARM CORE WITH A +2C TEMPERATURE ANOMALY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES LAGGING A BIT DUE TO THE DIURNAL WANING OF DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 01S IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED SOUTH. THE STR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH
OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN
SOUTHWARD THEN RE-CURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE (UKMO, NOGAPS, GFDN, WBAR, GFS AND ECMWF) IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A 10-15 KNOT PER DAY RATE WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 70 KNOTS AS IT NEARS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
TAU 120. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
132351Z NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 140000).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN











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First TC of the Southern Hemisphere 2010 Season - JAC, 11/14/2009, 12:49 pm
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