WPAC: 92W could spin up
Posted by
JAC on 11/19/2009, 7:50 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 174.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 190242Z AMSU IMAGE SUPPORTED A WEAK LLCC WITH VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT ALSO INDICATES A VERY SMALL, WEAK VORTICITY SIGNATURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN INDICATE 10-KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB. OVERALL, THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N 170E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING LLCC EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.


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