Possible record snow in Baton Rouge???
Posted by
Storm Nut on 12/2/2009, 12:58 pm
This is from the forecast discussion:
.LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERTAINS TO WINTRY
PRECIP. GFS HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF STILL HAS
NOT COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION BUT MODELS DO AGREE THAT A DEEP
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT BTR AND MCB SHOW SATURATION IN THE -10
TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WELL AS COLUMN TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
FROM AROUND 1500KFT AND UPWARDS AFTER 06Z SAT. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING
WOULD PRODUCE STRICTLY SNOW. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
-SN TO THE FORECAST FROM BTR TO POPLARVILLE AND NORTHWARD. LATEST
MEX CAME IN AT 70PCT AND PREVIOUS RUN HAD MID 40S. B/C OF SUCH A BIG
CHANGE...DECIDED TO STAY ON THE LOW SIDED OF GUIDANCE AT 40PCT WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS EVENT. LAST YEAR/S SNOW ON DEC 11TH WAS THE EARLIEST ON
RECORD...SO CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW
DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
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Possible record snow in Baton Rouge??? - Storm Nut, 12/2/2009, 12:58 pm Post A Reply
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