A Shortwave & Surface-Low Phasing in the NE CONUS Mid Next Week?
Posted by JAC on 12/4/2009, 8:07 am
| PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 719 AM EST FRI DEC 04 2009 VALID 12Z TUE DEC 08 2009 - 12Z FRI DEC 11 2009 WELL AGREED UPON SHORTWAVE COMING EWD THRU THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND EWD THRU THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT MDT TO HVY CENTRAL TO SRN ROCKIES SNOWS AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN AZ WITH A HVY SNOWFALL BAND EWD THRU THE PLAINS FROM KS/NB/MO/IA INTO WI AND NRN MI. THIS DEEPENING STORM WILL HAVE HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT ESPECIALLY ACROSS ITS N AND W SIDE OF THE TRACK TUES INTO THURSDAY. HVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG A STRONG ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF COASTAL STATES INTO THE APPLACHNS/ID ATLC REGION AND NORTHEAST TUES/THURS. NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OF GFS CONTS ITS MORE PHASED AMPLIFIED TREND OF TWO SEPERATE STREAMS DAYS 5-7 RESULTING IN ITS DEEP PHASED AMPLIFIED TROF AND MORE WESTERLY STORM TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NNEWD FROM KY WED TO ME THURSDAY. LATEST TREND OF GFS AND GEFS MEAN WHILE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN ECMWF/CMC/UKMET IS STILL TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN USED EARLIER FOR PRELIMS. LATEST CMC AND UKMET FOLLOW THE 00Z ECMWF AND ECMWF MEANS THRU DAY 6. LATEST 12Z ECMWF CLOSE TO ITS PRIOR RUN BUT WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PAC NORTHWEST/NRN INTERMTN REGION TO THE EAST COAST BY DAY 7. THEREFORE NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DOMINATED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN.    |
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