Severe Weather for SE on Tuesday
Posted by JAC on 12/5/2009, 7:57 pm



SPC AC 050956
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0356 AM CST SAT DEC 05 2009
 
  VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
 
  ...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUE/TUE NIGHT...
 
  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STRONG SURFACE
  CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
  THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
  COMING WORK WEEK.  SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS
  MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THIS EVOLUTION.
   BUT...IT CURRENTLY SEEMS PROBABLE THAT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
  ACCELERATING EAST OF THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WILL BE PRECEDED BY
  A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
  EASTERN PACIFIC...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE
  MIDDLE/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
  MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY
  WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BY THIS
  TIME.  ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION...COINCIDENT WITH INTENSIFYING
  SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO YIELD STRONG TO
  EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SHOULD BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
  STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 
  ..KERR.. 12/05/2009
49
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UKMET has a bomb off northeast!!966mb - Fred, 12/4/2009, 8:06 pm
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