Offical Forecast may be Underestimated
Posted by JAC on 12/13/2009, 11:01 am
Lots of Hot Water and Great UL Support.

Starting a roll on MIMIC-TPW.

Moving away from land should help development.

I think a good chance for RI.


















130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 127.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130513Z AMSR-E 36V GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM ADRM IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AT 45 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS. TC 06S IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BUT SHOULD START TURNING
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EAST OF 118E INTO NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10 TO 15 KNOT
RATE PER DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW NEAR TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF
RECURVATURE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 122151Z DEC 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 122200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (CLEO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Cyclone season has not... - hanna, 12/12/2009, 1:00 pm
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