Here ya go - enjoy
Posted by JAC on 12/19/2009, 2:09 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2261
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1127 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2009
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...VA...WV...MD...DE...NJ...PA...NY...CT
 
  CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
 
  VALID 191727Z - 192330Z
 
  HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY FROM THE D.C.
  I-95 CORRIDOR NNEWD TOWARDS LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  WITHIN THIS
  ZONE...BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
  MEGALOPOLIS.
 
  CENTER OF MAJOR EAST COAST CYCLONE/BOMB WILL MAKE GRADUAL NNEWD
  PROGRESS FROM EAST OF VA CAPES TO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE MAY NJ THROUGH
  EVENING WHILE UNDERGOING SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING. STRONGEST
  ASCENT...AND GREATEST HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES...WILL COINCIDE WITH
  MOST INTENSE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEPEST DENDRITE GROWTH
  LAYER.  LATEST NCEP-SREF GUIDANCE THROUGH 00Z SHOWS THESE DYNAMIC
  AND THERMODYNAMIC FEATURES WILL TRANSITION ONLY SLOWLY NWD/NWWD
  THROUGH LATE TODAY. BROAD AND QUASI-BANDED HEAVY SNOW FIELD SHOULD
  GRADUALLY DECAY ON ITS SWRN FLANK...AND DEVELOP/INTENSIFY AND PIVOT
  COUNTERCLOCKWISE FROM NRN MD/SERN PA TO SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND
  THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
 
  SREF PROBABILITY MATCHED-MEAN /PMM/ 3-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE USED
  TO ARRIVE AT THE 1-2 INCH AND 2 INCH PLUS PER HOUR RATES DEPICTED IN
  THE MD GRAPHIC.  FURTHERMORE...AS BOMBOGENESIS OCCURS OFFSHORE...THE
  INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AOA 35 MPH
  FROM DELMARVA NWD TOWARDS LONG ISLAND.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z
  NSSL 4 KM WRF SHOWING MAX 1 HOURLY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS OVER THIS
  CORRIDOR. THUS...CONSIDERABLE FALLING...BLOWING...AND DRIFTING SNOW
  WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN
  THE HEAVIEST SNOW BURSTS.
 
  ..SMITH/CARBIN.. 12/19/2009
 
 
  ...NOTICE...
  SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
  SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
  TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
  FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
 
  ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
 
  LAT...LON   39127892 40467719 40917595 41227425 41117293 40697292
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In this thread:
Blizzard Watch for Long Island!!!! - chriswx, 12/18/2009, 7:31 am
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