910mb (estimated) - Borderline Cat 5
Posted by JAC on 1/8/2010, 8:45 am
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REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 76.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (EDZANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE
WITH A T-NUMBER OF 7.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES. TC 07S HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. A 15 NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN 081200Z INFRARED
IMAGERY AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A POLEWARD STAIR-STEP OCCURRING SOMETIME AROUND
TAU 72 AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE SLIGHTLY. TC EDZANI WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOST OF
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS.
THE UKMET SOLUTION, WHICH IS DEPICTING A WEAKER SYSTEM, IS TRACKING
THE CYCLONE WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOLE WESTWARD
OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN


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In this thread:
A much warmer topic. 07S.EDZANI a cat 3 - hanna, 1/7/2010, 8:40 pm
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