System moving to GOM coast late this week
Posted by JAC on 1/18/2010, 7:31 am



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0314 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010
 
  VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
 
  DAY 4...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
  EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN U.S. THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF
  AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
  AGO. DESPITE THIS TREND...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
  NRN FL INTO SRN GA. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NEWD
  INTO THIS REGION AND CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. THE
  MOIST AXIS WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
  VERTICAL SHEAR ATTENDING THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. STORMS
  DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THIS AREA MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
  SURFACE TO POSE A SEVERE RISK.
 
  DAY 6 AND 7...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...GFS AND MREF MEMBERS HAVE
  CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION AND MOVE THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
  THE ERN PACIFIC EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES
  WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. A LARGE CYCLONE
  WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE
  SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY. INTRUSION OF
  CP AIR IN WAKE OF EJECTING IMPULSE THURSDAY WILL NOT EXTEND FAR INTO
  THE GULF. AS A RESULT...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POISED TO
  ADVECT NWD AS CYCLONE DEEPENS...THOUGH  DURATION OF THE MOIST
  ADVECTION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. A FORCED BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
  DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID
  MS VALLEY SATURDAY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
  TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
  EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE
  EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY
  ADVECT NWD TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND A SEVERE THREAT
  DURING THIS TIME.
 
  ..DIAL.. 01/18/2010
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Large El-Nino Jet hitting CA - JAC, 1/18/2010, 7:20 am
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