Freezing Rain Potential; OK to NC
Posted by JAC on 1/28/2010, 7:09 am


...INTERIOR SWRN U.S. INTO SRN PLNS...
MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO DVLPG ACRS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS THIS PD AS HEIGHT FALLS EJECT OUT OF THE SW U.S.  MODELS
SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING INITIAL MID/UPR CIRC EVIDENT
OVER NW MEX NEWD TOWARD ERN NM..THEN OPENING UP SLIGHTLY AS A POS
TILT TROF AS IT MOVES ACRS THE TX PANHANDLE BY FRI MORNING.  ALL
MODELS SHOW INITIAL STG PCPN DVLPMENT ACRS WRN TX INTO ERN NM
EARLY DAY 1 AS INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE
INTERACT WITH STG ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCD HIGH PRES DROPPING
SLOWLY SWD ACRS THE REGION.  LATER IN THE PD AS HEIGHT FALLS PUSH
EWD INTO DEEPENING MSTR AXIS ALONG LOW LEVEL JET ACRS SRN
TX...EXPECT CONVECTION TO EXPAND AND DVLPG SEWD ACRS CNTL/SRN TX
WHERE MODELS SHOW PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.25 INCHES ALONG WITH
NEAR 50 KTS OF SLY FLOW JUST AHEAD OF DVLPG SFC WAVE AND ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.  STG 85H-7H THETAE ADV AHEAD OF TROF SHOULD SUPPORT
DECENT LIFT ACRS A BROAD PORTION OF TX INTO WRN OK/ERN NM...WHERE
THERE IS DECENT MODEL SUPPORT FOR SOME BROAD 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS
LIQUID AMOUNTS.  GENLY FAVOR A GFS/12Z ECMWF IDEA IN KEEPING
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER GIVEN STG CONVECTIVE POTNL
THERE WHICH SHOULD CUT BACK SOME ON AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT..THOUGH STILL SUBSTANTIAL AS COMMA HEAD LIFTS ACRS THE AREA.
ALSO DESPITE POS TILT NATURE OF THE FRONT..THINK THE NAM AND GFS
MAY BE A TAD SLOW IN SHIFTING HEAVIER PCPN EWD TOWARD SE TX BY THE
END OF THE PD BASED PARTLY ON THE GFS'S ONLY LI FCST WHICH SHIFTS
BEST LIS RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD ERN/SE TX BY FRI MRNG.  SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS ARE PSBL ACRS PARTS OF NRN NM..NW TX..AND WRN OK..WITH SOME
HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SE OF THIS AREA.  SEE QPFHSD
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

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Major Winter Storm: OK to VA - JAC, 1/28/2010, 7:04 am
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