Cook Islands residents moving inland ahead of cyclone Pat
Posted by JAC on 2/10/2010, 7:32 am
100900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 159.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH
OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100428Z
TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
ROUND 10 NM DIAMETER EYE WITH AXISYMMETRIC UNIFORM CONVECTION,
TYPICAL OF AN ANNULAR SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
OVER FAVORABLE SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 12,
TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
NEAR TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT
AS IT BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z AND 110900Z.//
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Plans were being made to move people inland in some parts of the south Pacific island nation of Cook Islands in preparation for the arrival of Cyclone Pat.

Storm conditions were expected to strengthen later on Wednesday.

Recent forecasts put the Category two cyclone 320 km north of Aitutaki, moving slowly southwest at about six to nine knots, Radio New Zealand International reported on Wednesday.

The Met Service said a warning system was in place and strong winds and high seas were being felt by some islands.

Director Arona Ngari said some people were moving inland and some tourist operators on Aitutaki were preparing to evacuate their customers.

Source:Xinhua



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 10/0839 UTC 2010 UTC.

***CORRECTION TO CATEGORY**]

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [960HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 159.3W
AT 100600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
FURTHER IN THIS DIRECTION. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 75 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
             AND OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
             AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN SECTORS FROM
             NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES  
             OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.  

SPIRAL BANDS TO EAST AND SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC AS PAT
TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH. PAT
LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH WHITE SURROUND AND BLACK EYE
GIVES DT=5.0. PT=4.5 MET=5.0. FT RESTRICTED BY CONSTRAINTS. FT BASED
ON PT THUS, T4.5/4.5/D1.0/12HRS. CYCLONE STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS UNDER A
NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO EAST. SYSTEM MOVING INTO DECREASING SHEAR REGION. BRIEF
INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR TO SOUTH EVENTUALLY
OVERWHELMS THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS DEEPEN THE SYSTEM WHILE MOVING
IT SOUTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 19.5S 160.6W MOV SW AT 09KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 20.7S 162.1W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 21.8S 163.9W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 22.6S 165.9W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 101430 UTC OR EARLIER.



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Cook Islands residents moving inland ahead of cyclone Pat - JAC, 2/10/2010, 7:32 am
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