Rex Block could do another number on the East Coast
Posted by JAC on 2/17/2010, 7:41 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EST WED FEB 17 2010

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 24 2010


USED THE 00Z/17 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3-5...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 ECMWF AND 12Z/16 ECENS
MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7.  THE 00Z/17 ECMWF...GEFS MEAN...AND 12Z/16
ECENS MEAN CLUSTER WELL WITH MOST OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD...FAR AND AWAY BETTER THAN THE
DISPARATE SOLUTIONS OF THE 00Z/17 DETERMINISTIC GFS...GEM
GLOBAL...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET.  THE UKMET SUPPORTS THE
ECMWF WITH BOTH THE CHUNK OF POLAR AIR PULLED INTO THE SOUTHWEST
DAY 5...AS WELL AS THE MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE MAJOR WAVE
CROSSING THE EAST LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6.  BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH
ITS MOST RECENT MEAN THE LAST TWO DAYS TO MITIGATE THE LATITUDE AT
WHICH THE CYCLONE PASSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 6...AS WELL AS
EVEN OUT THE LATITUDE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
APPROACHING NORTH AMERICA DAY 7.  THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL LOOK
SUSPECT WITH THE RUSH OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY MID
PERIOD...CONSIDERING THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WHICH HAS HELD MOST OF
THE WINTER.  THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE EAST LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HIGHLY IMPACT SOME OF THE AREAS ALREADY HIT
BY MAJOR SNOWSTORMS THIS SEASON.

CISCO


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Possible Storm Midwest to East Coast 2/21 thru 2/23 - JAC, 2/17/2010, 7:38 am
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