Re: Possible nasty nor'easter end of the week
Posted by JAC on 2/21/2010, 8:41 pm

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2010

VALID 12Z WED FEB 24 2010 - 12Z SUN FEB 28 2010

A LARGE BUT SLOWLY SHRINKING AREA OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND AN
ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WX OVER THE LOWER 48
STATES THIS NEXT WEEK.  

12Z/21 MODELS CLUSTER REASONABLY WELL WITH THE FIRST MAJOR SYS
MOVING NWD OFF THE E COAST  
WED THAT WILL BURY INTERIOR NEW ENG IN HEAVY SNOW. THE GFS IS THE
ERN OUTLIER AND THE CANADIAN THE WRN ONE...WITH THE PREFERRED
ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EXPLOSIVE NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR EARLY FRI S OF THE ORIGINAL DEVELOPMENT AND
QUICKLY ABSORB IT. THE GFS IS JUST S OF THE 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT THU EVE AND IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE
STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT AND NE CANADA. IN
GENERAL...12Z /21 MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE
WAY THEY BREAK OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN POLAR
VORTEX...CLOSING IT OFF AND DROPPING IT INTO THE UPPER OH VLY WED
NIGHT. THERE...IT WILL HELP REJUVENATE AN ALREADY VIGOROUS HEAVY
SN PRODUCING LOW AFFECTING NEW ENG.

FINAL GRAPHICS WERE GENERALLY LEFT ALONE OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...HOWEVER...WE ADJUSTED THE SURFACE PATTERN TOWARDS THAT OF
THE NEW 12Z GFS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CONUS. THE NEW GFS WAS
SLOWER THAN ITS 06Z/21 RUN IN BRINGING A STRONG SYS TOWARDS SRN
CA...AND STILL CONSISTENT WITH ITS O6Z RUN IN BEING MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH IT THAN ITS 00Z RUN.  

MODELS AGREE ON A NEW SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VLY
BY FRI DAY 5.  IT SHOULD WEAKEN THEREAFTER....AS IT IS MOVING INTO
AN UNFAVORABLE DRY COLD ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE MAJOR SYS
ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST. ONLY A WEAK RESPONSE TO IT IS EXPECTED ON
THE POLAR FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SRN STREAM GETS A BIT
MURKY ON DAY 6...BUT BY SUN DAY 7...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND GFS ARE
ALL CONSOLIDATING A NEW VIGOROUS TROF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SWRN
STATES...AND HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PAST DAYS RUNS IN SO
DOING.  FARTHER OFFSHORE IN THE ERN PACIFIC...12Z MODELS CONVERGED
ON A LARGE STORM DRIFTING EWD CROSSING 45N/160W SAT DAY 6.

FLOOD

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Possible nasty nor'easter end of the week - JAC, 2/21/2010, 8:30 pm
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