Pacific-System could cause severe weather over TX/OK early next week
Posted by JAC on 3/4/2010, 7:17 am
Heavy shear along the GOM Coast

Looks like a negative-tilt shortwave / cut-off low will move east.









EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
126 PM EST WED MAR 03 2010

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 06 2010 - 12Z WED MAR 10 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH QUITE REASONABLE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z/03 DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS.  THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST UNSTABLE OF
THIS QUARTET OF GUIDANCE...SO PREFERRED THE DETAILS OF THE
EUROPEAN CENTRE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST.  UPDATED
THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES WITH A HEAVY WEIGHTING ON THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH A
MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE ECENS MEAN DURING THE SECOND HALF TO
MITIGATE THE DIFFICULTIES IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL INHERENT TO THAT
RANGE.  THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING A FAIRLY DEEP...SPRAWLING
CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES LATE DAY 5 THROUGH DAY 7.  WHILE
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO THE
STORM...THE PERSISTENT DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL PRECLUDE A FULL
OPENING OF THE GULF...PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI.


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Pacific-System could cause severe weather over TX/OK early next week - JAC, 3/4/2010, 7:17 am
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