South FL could be under-the-gun this afternoon
Posted by
JAC on 3/11/2010, 7:44 am
![](http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010031103/SREF_prob_supercomp_1__f021.gif)
![](http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2010031103/SREF_prob_sigtor_1__f021.gif)
SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED WITHIN THE DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE NERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TRANSPORT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NEWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE IN MOST AREAS TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY WITHIN THE BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES. THESE STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE LOW HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...WHICH ALONG WITH A THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS. A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL MATERIALIZE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA WHERE INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE AND GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR. LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT MAY UNDERGO A TEMPORARY DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS OVER THE PENINSULA DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING SRN STREAM IMPULSE.
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In this thread:
South FL could be under-the-gun this afternoon - JAC, 3/11/2010, 7:44 am- Severe Threat Continues - JAC, 3/11/2010, 3:14 pm
- Tornado spotted near HOMOSASSA SPRINGS - JAC, 3/11/2010, 2:47 pm
- Multiple funnel clouds reported 25 mi west of Daytona Beach, FL at 11:32 AM EST - JAC, 3/11/2010, 12:33 pm
- Tornado Watch Up - JAC, 3/11/2010, 12:12 pm
- Strong Mid & UL Jets - JAC, 3/11/2010, 7:51 am
- RUC shows cap cuts loose with good GOM juice infeed - JAC, 3/11/2010, 7:49 am
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