Re: a clip from my 2005 kickoff show
Posted by jack ruby on 3/13/2010, 8:28 pm
You know how that goes Jimw. Unless you have a phd. after your name, your not really in the club. No matter what you know, no matter how obvious the material might be. How can return rates be so totally discounted? Doesn't the scientific community post shaded areas along the coast which show areas which are yearly more likely to be hit? Isn't that based on long term percentages? Shouldn't percentages over a long period even out? So that if a given area has been less active, then you might expect it to become more active in the short term in order to even the long term percentage out? If not, then it seems to me that you would be expressing less confidence in the long term rates.
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my hurricane season forecast - sams29, 3/10/2010, 8:22 pm
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