Forecast track and discussion..............
Posted by chucky7777 on 3/14/2010, 12:34 am
 WTPS31 PGTW 140300MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 161.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 161.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 12.6S 160.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 12.7S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 12.9S 157.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.3S 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.0S 155.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.7S 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.7S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 161.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES INDICATE TC 20P CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A HIGHER THAN NORMAL RATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED 10-NM DIAMETER EYE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT THAT IS ENHANCING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO ENJOY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO HINDER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, CAUSING THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN THE FORECAST. THIS TROUGH WILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEADING TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 72. TC ULUI IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BUILDS AND STEERS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
Need something now. Ului Cat 5? - skip_wiley, 3/13/2010, 9:55 pm
- Re: Need something now. Ului Cat 5? - hanna, 3/14/2010, 2:19 pm
- Interesting, there is a cyclone behind Ului - chucky7777, 3/14/2010, 3:46 am
- Cat 5. - CX, 3/13/2010, 10:35 pm
- Re: Satellite loop ............. - chucky7777, 3/14/2010, 12:44 am
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