North MS, AL; South TN under the gun
Posted by JAC on 4/24/2010, 4:06 pm
Very high Helicity in West TN

Cap breaking along TN / AL Border

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 96
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  120 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         MUCH OF ALABAMA
         PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
         PARTS OF INDIANA
         LARGE PART OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
         MIDDLE TENNESSEE
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CDT.
 
  ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
 
  DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
  POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
  MONTGOMERY ALABAMA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF EVANSVILLE INDIANA.
  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
 












MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0201 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...LWR OH/TN VLYS...MID-SOUTH
 
  CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...96...
 
  VALID 241901Z - 242030Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94...96...CONTINUES.
 
  HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM NRN MS/AL NWD
  THROUGH WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND EXTREME SRN IL/IND THROUGH
  LATE AFTN.  HERE...STRONGEST JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
  LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
 
  LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER WRN KY AT
  18Z AND ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS RESULTING IN 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
  500 M2/S2 FROM THE LWR OH VLY SWD INTO TN VLY.  SFC DEW POINTS HAVE
  RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S AS FAR N AS SRN IL AND SWRN IND AND THE 70S
  TO ALONG THE TN/MS BORDER...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT CAPE TO SUPPORT
  STORMS.  18Z JACKSON SOUNDING SUGGESTED INCREASED CAPPING INVERSION
  AROUND H7 MAY BE INHIBITING SUSTAINED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SOUTH OF
  THE LATITUDE OF JACKSON MS ACROSS LA/SRN MS.  
 
  MEANWHILE...FARTHER TO THE S AND E ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL...CONVECTION
  HAS BEEN BACKBUILDING ALONG SW EDGE OF MORNING STORMS.  LOW-LEVEL
  THETA-E AXIS HAS BEEN TRYING TO BUILD NEWD EARLY THIS AFTN AND MAY
  EVENTUALLY WORK TOWARD THE GA/AL BORDER AREA BY 22Z OR SO.
  INCREASING WAA AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
  INCREASE IN SVR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN.  FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
  AND IMPROVING THERMODYNAMICS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
  TORNADO RISKS...PARTICULARLY IN THE ZONE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
  TORNADO WATCH 96.
 
  ..RACY.. 04/24/2010
 


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Particulary Dangerous Situation most of MS and adjacent states. High risk of tornadoes. - JAC, 4/24/2010, 8:34 am
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