Update
Posted by
JAC on 4/27/2010, 12:57 pm
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 27 2010
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC NLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
DIVERGENT S OF 20N ALONG ABOUT 120W...YIELDING A NW TO WLY LLVL
FLOW FEEDING INTO THE NOW WELL ESTABLISHED TROPICAL EPAC
MONSOONAL GYRE...WHILE S TO SWLY CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW EXTENDS
FROM S AMERICA W TO 110W. A BROAD ZONE OF LLVL CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA OVER ANOMALOUSLY WARM SST'S CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE PULSING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS CYCLONIC GYRE...WHERE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. GFS ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES PBL THETA-E OF
360K ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC FROM THE ITCZ N OF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG NICARAGUA...WHERE STATIONS WERE REPORTING
DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 27C THIS MORNING. PERSISTANT CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS ZONE HAS ALLOW FOR THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO
TELECONNECT WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL S AMERICA TO
MAINTAIN EXCELLENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W
AND 108W. SEVERAL LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED IN
IR IMAGERY FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF OF COLOMBIA TO 93W WITH
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING SOME POSSIBILITY OF BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF A BROAD LOW WITHIN THIS GYRE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH
CONTINUED LLVL NW TO W FLOW FORECAST N OF THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...SLOW MOTION OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY
AND COULD LEAD TO VERY HEAVY TO COPIOUS RAINFALL IN THIS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA |
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