Possible Severe Weather Friday, IN, OH, KY, WV, SE MI, W PA & NY
Posted by JAC on 5/4/2010, 6:34 am
 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2010 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... 04/00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON DAY 4 /FRI MAY 7TH/. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FAST-MOVING...COLD FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SIZABLE SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES BY DAY 5 INTO DAY 6 /SAT MAY 8TH INTO SUN MAY 9TH/. AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEWD EJECTION OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON DAY 7 /MON MAY 10TH/. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN INTRA-MODEL VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 05/04/2010 |
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In this thread:
- GFS Surface Low - JAC, 5/4/2010, 7:35 am
- CMC lags a bit, but more organized - JAC, 5/4/2010, 8:05 am
- 500mb Friday Evening - JAC, 5/4/2010, 7:57 am
- Boundary-Layer Theta-E - JAC, 5/4/2010, 8:02 am
- 130-knot Jet - JAC, 5/4/2010, 7:59 am
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