Negative Tilt. Cap in place south of Red River
Posted by JAC on 5/17/2010, 7:02 am
 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS IN THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET...MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN QUICKLY NWD INTO NORTH TX AND OK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BROAD CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION CLEARS DURING THE LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSITION OF A 35 TO 45 KT JET MAX NEAR 850 MB IN CNTRL OK. THIS JET SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FOR TORNADOES WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE FROM THE JET CENTER WWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE 30 PERCENT AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY CONTOURS HAVE BEEN ADDED. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NW AND WCNTRL TX EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR ERN CO WHERE THE MODELS FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY INVOLVE THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENDS UP BEING SLOWER THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND THE DRYLINE IS SETUP FURTHER WEST...THE WRN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WOULD BE FAVORED. ..BROYLES.. 05/17/2010   |
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In this thread:
Possible Severe Weather 5/19-5/20 and then 5/23-5/24 - JAC, 5/14/2010, 3:38 pm
- OKC to DFW after dark - uncapped. Forecast Hodo just went off-chart! - JAC, 5/18/2010, 1:02 pm
- North TX, OK, & KS Under-the-Gun Wednesday - JAC, 5/18/2010, 7:14 am
- Along the Red River - JAC, 5/16/2010, 8:47 pm
- DFW needs to keep an eye on this around midnight - JAC, 5/17/2010, 7:05 am
- SPC & HPC Discussion for this week - JAC, 5/16/2010, 7:32 am
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