Expect Strong Tornadoes
Posted by JAC on 5/19/2010, 2:30 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0122 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND EXTREME NRN TX
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 191822Z - 192015Z
 
  MID-LVL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS WAS BEGINNING
  TO MIGRATE INTO ERN OK AND ACCELERATED COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
  SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  18Z VSBL SATL ALREADY SHOWS
  EVIDENCE OF TCU INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT OVER ERN HEMPHILL/WHEELER
  COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL AND MAY MARK THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE
  MID-LATE AFTN/EVENING DOWNSTREAM.  
 
  18Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VERY NEAR I-40 WITH A
  WRMFNT EXTENDING ESE FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORMAN TO SERN OK.
  A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SEEMINGLY HAS EVOLVED AND WAS LOCATED A COUPLE
  ROWS OF COUNTIES W OF I-44...WELL-AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. TO THE W OF
  THIS FEATURE...CU FIELD WAS INCREASING AND STRATUS WAS ERODING TO
  THE N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT EL RENO WWD TO THE STATE
  LINE.
 
  AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN THIS AFTN...EXPECT THAT THE SFC-H85
  FLOW WILL BACK SOMEWHAT AND MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG
  THE DRYLINE TO SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION IN THE 19-21Z TIME
  FRAME...PERHAPS EVOLVING FROM CURRENT BUILD-UPS ENTERING WCNTRL OK.
  OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW OR EVEN PERHAPS
  THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM OKC METRO WWD ALONG/JUST N OF I-40 AFTER
  21Z.  MATURE STORMS WILL TRACK ROUGHLY 250/30 KTS.
 
  INGREDIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CONGEAL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
  TORNADOES FROM N OF KCSM ESE THROUGH KOKC METRO IN THE 21Z-02Z AND
  POSSIBLY FARTHER ESE INTO ECNTRL OK BY MID-EVENING.  HERE...0-1KM
  SRH WILL GENERALLY BE 250-300 M2/S2 AMIDST LOW LCL/S AND A HIGH
  PROBABILITY FOR DISCRETE STORMS.  OTHERWISE...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
  DMGG WIND GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
 
  ..RACY.. 05/19/2010
 
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Significant Severe Weather for OKC area this evening and thru DFW area overnight - JAC, 5/19/2010, 6:37 am
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